ISIS, Fallujah: Loss of city would be fatal blow to embattled terror group, expert says

The embattled terror group, which is still reeling f-rom the fall of Palmyra in Syria two months ago, is determined to fight to the death to retain Fallujah.

That is the view of counter terrorism expert Warren Reed who told news.com.au the loss of the Iraqi city would amount to a fatal blow to IS.

He also warned both IS and Iraqi forces will be unwilling to lose this battle with the risk to both sides being massive.

“Fallujah is like a dagger point to the Iraqi Government’s heart and they’ll do whatever it takes to remove that sharp point,” he said.

“It’s hard to predict how it will end, but both sides will be prepared to smash the city to smithereens to win.”

Iraqi military forces are determined to take Fallujah back. Picture: Khalid Mohammed/APSource:AP

Mr Reed, a former Australian Secret Intelligence Service agent, said it was clear IS were holed up in a bitter fight to the end.

“The city is highly symbolic because it’s so close to the capital of Baghdad,” he said.

“Iraqi forces are determined to take it back and ISIS are significantly weakened, but not finished.”

He said while it was difficult to determine which side would win, he was certain the city and its people would suffer.

He added IS would not want to lose the city as it was the first one in its so called caliphate it had captured.

“It’s not the end of ISIS, but it’s the beginning of the end,” he said, having already predicted the terror group was significantly weakening after the fall of Palmyra.

“It’s the people who will suffer, the citizens are trapped.”

Smoke billows through the air during an offensive. Picture: Khalid MohammedSource:AP

If IS does indeed lose control of Fallujah it will represent another massive loss to the terror group.

In March, IS was driven f-rom of its most important strongholds in Syria and hundreds of its fighters are dead after Syrian government forces, backed by Russian air strikes, took back control of the ancient city of Palmyra.

Palmyra endured a 10-month reign of terror when IS militants stormed the ancient town.

However, the situation in Fallujah, which has been held by IS for two years, is complicated by other issues including religious division.

Mr Reed said certain religious groups in the city may not necessarily side with IS but due to feeling disenfranchised wouldn’t help the Iraqi government forces either.

LONG BATTLE

Fallujah, which is 65km west of Baghdad, has been under militant control longer than any other part of Iraq.

Networks of tunnels like those found in other IS-held territory have already been discovered in its northeastern outskirts.

The Iraqi troops, also known as the counter-terrorism forces, are leading the assault on Fallujah, but are making slow advances because tens of thousands of civilians remain trapped in the city.

General Saad Harbiya, head of Fallujah operations for the Iraqi army said: “This is the decisive battle for us and for Daesh,” the acronym for the terror group.

The offensive, supported by air strikes f-rom the US-led coalition, was launched a week ago.

In that time, other wings of Iraq’s security forces have cleared the city’s edges.

Shi’ite militia forces under the government umbrella of the Popular Mobilisation Forces and the federal police lead operations that have taken back 80 per cent of the territory around Fallujah, according to Iraqi Major Dhia Thamir.

Commander of the Fallujah operation, Lt. General Abdul-Wahab al-Saadi, centre, inspects his forces ahead of the operation to retake the IS-held City of Falluja. Picture: Khalid Mohammed/APSource:AP

TOUGH RESISTANCE

Iraqi forces have already faced tough resistance f-rom IS as they attempt to enter the centre of Fallujah.

After thrusting toward Fallujah f-rom three directions on Monday, their biggest advance was f-rom the south, whe-re they pushed into the suburb of Naimiyah.

Lieutenant General Abdul-Wahab al-Saadi, the overall commander of the Fallujah operation, said IS fighters mounted a fierce counter-attack on the area early on Tuesday.

“There were around 100 fighters involved, they came at us heavily armed but did not use car bombs or suicide bombers,” he told AFP.

Saadi said Iraqi forces in the area, which also include police and army units, were eventually able to repel the attack, killing 75 jihadists.

 

 

 

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IRAQ: Iraqi Forces Advance on Southern Edge of Fallujah May 31

He did not give a figure for losses on the pro-government side.

Officers said US-led coalition and Iraqi air support was instrumental in repelling the attack and added that ground forces had now resumed their advance.

The Pentagon said the Fallujah offensive was “tough”.

“The past two days have shown” that IS “intends to put up a fight for it,” said spokesman Jeff Davis.

Fallujah was lost f-rom government control months before IS swept across large parts of Iraq in June 2014 and is an emblematic bastion for the jihadist group.

Iraqi forces have been sealing off Fallujah for months and those still in city — IS fighters and civilians alike — have nowhe-re to go.

In this image posted on a photo sharing website by an Islamic State militant media arm on Monday an IS fighter fires his weapon during clashes with Iraqi forces and their allies west of Fallujah.Source:AP

WELL TRAINED

The 500-700 IS fighters holed up in Fallujah are expected to be some of the group’s best-trained, a special forces commander at the scene earlier revealed.

Brigadier Haider al-Obeidi said fighting so far was “fierce,” with IS deploying snipers and releasing a volley of mortar rounds on the Iraqi forces.

Humanitarian groups say that as the violence intensifies, their concerns for civilians trapped inside Fallujah mount.

“With every moment that passes, their need for safe exits becomes more critical,” said Nasr Muflahi, the country director for the Norwegian Refugee Council, an international humanitarian group active in Anbar province.

In past operations, Iraq’s Shi’ite militia forces have been accused of committing abuses against civilians in majority Sunni towns and cities.

Sunni politicians have accused the security forces of using indiscriminate force that has endangered the more than 50,000 civilians estimated to be still inside Fallujah.

“The troops have been recommended to respect families and treat them gently,” said Hadi al-Amiri, the Shi’ite militia commander who also heads the Badr Organisation political party, while overseeing operations outside Fallujah.

The United Nations refugee agency also said IS forces are holding several hundred families as “human shields” in the Iraqi city while government forces close in.

UN deputy representative to Iraq Lise Grande described the reports as “credible” and said the families being pushed into the city centre were at “extreme risk”.

Iraqi pro-government forces hold a position on a front line in the Albu Huwa area, south of Fallujah near the Euphrates river during an operation aimed at retaking areas f-rom IS.Source:AFP

Iraqi Kurdish Peshmerga fighters fire an antitank cannon on the front line near Hasan Sham village, 45km east of Mosul, during an operation aimed at retaking areas f-rom IS.Source:AFP

‘DOWN BUT NOT OUT’

IS has come under mounting pressure on the battlefield in recent weeks, with Kurdish forces also gaining ground in the north in a two-day operation that wound up on Monday east of Mosul, the jihadists’ other urban bastion in Iraq.

On the back foot in Iraq, IS has tried to retain the initiative in neighbouring Syria with an offensive against non-jihadist rebels in the north of Aleppo province along the Turkish border.

That fighting, which the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said intensified on Tuesday, has also trapped tens of thousands of civilians.

“The situation is absolutely unsustainable and unacceptable for this population,” said Pablo Marco, regional head of Doctors Without Borders (MSF).

American non-profit global policy think tank RAND said it was clear IS was down but not out.

Associate political scientist Colin P Clarke and political scientist Chad Serena said it was clear the terror group was losing territory, its finances were dwindling and recruitment of foreign fighters was down to a trickle.

They warned the threat f-rom IS was far f-rom over.

“With foreign fighters unable to reach the battlefield, for example, Islamic State leaders could instruct would-be jihadists to remain home and launch attacks there,” they reveal.

They also predict IS may send its fighters across the globe to failed states or conflict zones throughout the Middle East, North Africa and South Asia.